The Week Ahead For Crude Oil, Gas and NGLs Markets – October 7, 2019

CRUDE OIL US crude oil inventories posted an increase of 3.1 MMBbl last week, according to the weekly EIA report. Gasoline and distillate inventories decreased 0.2 MMBbl and 2.4 MMBbl, respectively. Total petroleum inventories decreased 0.9 MMBbl. US crude oil production decreased 100 MBbl/d, per EIA, while crude oil imports were down 0.9 MMBbl/d, to an average of 6.3 MMBbl/d. Crude spent the week expanding the declines before finding some support from employment numbers on Friday. Earlier in the week, economic news signaling a potential weakening US economy pressured prices. With the partial ceasefire with the Houthi rebels in Yemen, the market diminished the geopolitical risks associated with attacks on the Saudi installations and production. This production is now back online, sooner than some had expected. This placed the majority of trade emphasis on the macroeconomic woes for global demand and the ongoing US–China trade war. The CFTC report released Friday (showing positions from October 1) showed a substantial shift in the expectations of speculative trade. The Managed Money long sector sold off 44,012 contracts, while the Managed Money short positions increased by 23,477 contracts. The two charts below show that these speculative expectations have remained in a comparatively tight… continue reading

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Source: CTRM Center

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