Prices Fall on Weather Forecast Changes, Despite Production Declines

Natural gas storage inventories increased 62 Bcf for the week ending July 12, according to the EIA’s weekly report. This is in line with the expected injection, which was 61 Bcf. Working gas storage inventories now sit at 2.533 Tcf, which is 291 Bcf above inventories at the same time last year and 143 Bcf below the five-year average. At the time of writing, the August 2019 contract was trading at $2.334/MMBtu, roughly $0.030 higher than yesterday’s close and ~$0.08 lower than last week. Hurricane Barry caused the market to drop over 1.5 Bcf/d in supply week over week. This happened while Power demand was at its highest levels of the summer. These bullish factors drove prices up last week, but they could not hold, and prices started their decline early this week, falling to the $2.30 to $2.34 range. These declines have come as a result of weather forecast changes, as the last third of July temperature expectations have fallen and are now expected to be cooler. Expect prices to continue to trade on movements in the weather forecasts moving forward. See the chart below for projections of the end-of-season storage inventories as of November 1, the end of… continue reading

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Source: CTRM Center

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