“If there’s one trade that keeps me up at night, it’s palladium. If you want my advice, stay clear of it,” were the comforting words of one senior trader who spoke to S&P Global Platts recently. Palladium has been sky-rocking over the past two years, creating not only a sense of jubilation for those on the right side of the trade, but also fear for those trying to gauge the metal’s next move. As ever with trading, it’s all in the timing. From a spot bid price of $700/oz at the start of 2017, the metal hit an all-time high of $1,440/oz in early January but then took a hammering lower. It leveled out around $1,320/oz, taking a breather that tempted some to question if the hot streak was finally over. Clearly not, because palladium was at a spot bid price of around $1,385/oz February 11. “One of the major reasons for palladium’s price surge became clearer in Nornickel’s Q4 production results, where quarter on quarter palladium output fell 10% to 632,000 oz, leaving the full year down 2% at 2,729,000 oz,” noted financial services company BMO in its research. Nornickel is the world’s largest producer of palladium. In November… continue reading
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Source: CTRM Center