S&P Global Platts President, Martin Fraenkel, explores the issues that will drive commodities in the coming year. After a year of seismic shifts in policy, geopolitics and trade, 2019 could be eventful. The landscape for commodity markets is also changing rapidly. During the last few years, the fundamentals of supply and demand were the main drivers for commodity markets. However, as was the case during the 1970s, geopolitics is now increasingly influencing decision-making across all parts of the resources industry from the well head to the trading floor. Although trade flows remain an important driver for commodity markets to focus on, we see factors such as technology disruption, policy change and trade barriers increasingly influencing prices. Despite the world’s growing demand for oil, which is expected to average 100 million b/d for the first time ever, concerns over climate change and the energy transition in mobility will remain in the background. Looking ahead, heightened levels of risk, new disruptive technologies and political uncertainty could make 2019 a year when the unpredictable becomes the norm. Geopolitical risk: the only certainty is uncertainty Geopolitical tensions in some of the world’s major resource-producing regions could intensify in 2019. The Middle East will be… continue reading
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Source: CTRM Center