Insight Conversation: Jeffrey Currie

In the latest Insight Conversation video, Jeffrey Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, talked to Paul Hickin about the bank’s call on oil prices and the commodities impact of the US−China trade war. The big question on everyone’s lips is whether we are going to see a return to oil prices at $100/barrel and beyond. Where do you think the market is going? We’re not saying $100/barrel oil cannot happen. It’s not our base case, nor do we think it’s very likely. To get a $100 price spike, you need to have a sustainable loss in all of Iran’s exports for an extendable period of time… The key point here is yes, if you had a sustained outage you could see a spike of that magnitude, but in no way is it our base case. Our base case is for a modest decline in inventories in the fourth quarter, which will likely keep prices somewhere around $80/barrel. But the faster and sooner the Iranian barrels are lost, the greater the upside potential, because it’s harder and more difficult for the non-Iranian producers in OPEC to respond to that kind of disruption. The key question is spare capacity.… continue reading

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