Australia’s bid to challenge Qatar as the world’s largest LNG exporter has been weakened by several factors including gas shortages, domestic supply commitments, natural declines at its LNG projects and the lack of a cohesive energy policy. As a result, Australia is unlikely to overtake Qatar’s LNG export volumes for any meaningful duration on a sustainable basis, an analysis of production data showed. In the most optimistic scenario Australia’s LNG exports may match Qatar’s for a few months in 2019 or 2020 when its production peaks, but the Pacific Rim nation will not be able hold its top position on an annual basis for very long unless circumstances change. Qatar’s LNG export capacity is the highest in the world at 77 million mt/year, and the combined nameplate capacity of Australia’s 10 LNG projects put together is 88 million mt/year. The problem is that while Qatar consistently reaches full capacity, and sometime exceeds it, Australia’s projects consistently run up to 15% below capacity. In fiscal year (June-July) 2017–2018, Australia exported 62 million mt of LNG as the last of its projects were ramping up. The government currently forecasts LNG exports to hit the 77 million mt/year mark in fiscal year 2019–2020,… continue reading
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Source: CTRM Center