The Death of Commodities?

By Andrew Packer In 1979, Business Week magazine posted a cover story called “The Death of Equities.” In plain English, they spelled out the trouble the stock market had been going through since peaking in 1968. And how it had never fully recovered from the brutal bear market of 1973-1974, which was the biggest percentage decline since the Great Depression (only recently replaced with the housing market crash). The article was excellent in all respects except for one little, nagging detail: it was dead wrong. It was a classic case of rear-view mirror investing. Yes, in hindsight, stocks were about the worst place to invest in. Bonds weren’t any better either. With rising interest rates, buying long bonds meant losing money as yields crept up. All that was about to change. In 1980, stocks would finally get back to their 1968 peak. And they’d pretty much rally from there, with the DOW soaring from 1,000 to over 21,000 today. The Business Week debacle shows the danger of looking at the recent past and extrapolating current fears forward indefinitely. Look, I get it. We’re human beings. It’s in our nature to try and find patterns and trends. It’s how our cavemen

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