Most predictions come with a disclaimer that if some rare, high-profile, unforeseen event were to occur, all bets are off. Usually that disclaimer is unwritten. Sometimes it is written. Last Thursday a US ferrous scrap exporter was providing a routine market outlook and in an e-mail exchange concluded he was “confident we’ve found the bottom of this market for now (barring any black swan events).” Popularized by author (and former derivatives trader) Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a black swan event is one that is unpredictable and could have catastrophic ramifications. As chance would have it, 28 hours after the black swan disclaimer in my e-mail exchange, news of a potential black swan landing was unraveling across social media and cable news outlets as a coup d’état attempt was underway in Turkey. There were certainly moments of unease amongst a US scrap supplier base that has grown so reliant on the country of 75 million sandwiched between Eastern Europe and Western Asia. Upon hearing the news and seeing the images I recalled the Thursday e-mailer and his disclaimer. I immediately reached out to the scrap exporter/commentator who was surely having one of those “sometimes I hate being right” moments. He fired back with
The post Turkey coup close call a near black swan Black Friday for scrap market appeared first on CTRM Center.
Source: CTRM Center