(Reuters) by Dmitry Zhdannikov – Massive downward revisions to oil output in Brazil and Iraq have increased the risks for oil markets of going from the current feast to famine within just a few years, leading to a price spike that would give a new boost to the U.S. shale industry. Brazil and Iraq had been expected to add over 2 million barrels per day to global supply by 2020 and another 2.5 million by 2025, becoming the two biggest contributors to help meet rising global demand, according to the long-term forecast of the International Energy Agency. With Brazil‘s Petrobras cutting this week its five-year production outlook by 1.4 million bpd in response to low oil prices and the ongoing corruption probe and Iraq renegotiating deals with oil majors to reflect “more realistic” output targets, the current glut in the oil markets is poised to end sooner than expected. “All these project cancellations and deferral and cut backs are setting the world up for tighter oil markets in the medium term (2017-19) unless the record Middle East oil rig count successfully translates into significantly higher production,” said Seth Kleinman from Citi. “Demand will have its say but from a supply … continue reading
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